With the Kansas City Chiefs locked into the No. 3 spot in the AFC, Andy Reid will be sitting a handful of key starters, including Patrick Mahomes, making Sunday’s season finale an AFC West battle between Blaine Gabbert and Easton Stick. The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites in the NFL odds at SoFi Stadium.
The Chargers were +13 home dogs vs. the Bills just two weeks ago and although Kansas City is sitting significant starters, is it really worth 16 points and do bettors want to lay -3.5 points with Stick and the Chargers?
I break down the Week 18 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Chiefs and Chargers on January 7.
Chiefs vs Chargers odds
Chiefs vs Chargers predictions
I understand downgrading the Kansas City Chiefs significantly in this spot as Andy Reid has stated that many starters, including Patrick Mahomes, will sit Sunday vs. the Los Angeles Chargers as they are locked into the No.3 spot. However, Buffalo was -13 in LA just two games ago and a 16.5-point swing might be overdoing it.
As expected, with the Chiefs locked into the AFC’s No. 3 playoff seed, coach Andy Reid said some starters, including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, will not play in Sunday’s regular season finale against the Chargers.Veteran backup Blaine Gabbert will get his first start.
— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) January 3, 2024
Blaine Gabbert is not a no-body QB. He’s a former Top-10 pick who was very good with the Chiefs in the preseason completing 62% of his passes for 348 yards and five scores on 32 passes. In what will basically be a preseason game for the visitors, Gabbert has shown well.
The Chiefs also went 2-1 SU in the tune-ups and the offense wasn’t bad either scoring at least 24 points in each game 97 points in total. Gabbert will likely be lacking key members, but it sounds like Travis Kelce could get a little run, Kadarius Toney is looking likely, and, let’s face it, there wasn’t a lot of star power to begin with on this offense so that talent pool between the top and bottom might not be that significant.
There is also no way I’m laying 3.5 points with Easton Stick and the Chargers. The QB is 0-3 SU over three starts vs. Denver, Las Vegas, and Buffalo. His offensive weapons are also minimal with Keenan Allen likely out and Josh Palmer very questionable. Interim head coach Giff Smith said the chances of Allen playing are slim and Palmer has been limited with a concussion.
Making things worse for Los Angeles is the likely absence of green-dot linebacker Kenneth Murray who missed last week and was DNP early in the week.
The Chargers are void of talent and have a little less motivation this week with nothing on the horizon and another let-down of a season in the books. I think the Chiefs are being downgraded too much here as they are still going to field a roster of players competing for roster spots. I’m also not betting on Easton Stick at -3.5 with a lack of receiver talent.
My best bet: Chiefs +3.5 (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Chiefs vs Chargers same-game parlay
Chiefs moneylineChiefs first-half moneyline (three-way)Chiefs Over 2.5 touchdowns
+800 at bet365
Let’s push some chips in with the KC offense that is getting absolutely undervalued in this spot, indoors, and vs. this LA defense. Since the 1-7 SU record began for the Chargers, it is the No.21 defense in EPA/play and No.26 in success rate. Gabbert is the better of the two starting QBs and he showed plenty of touch with the backups in the preseason throwing for five TDs on just 34 passes.
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