The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals wrap up their regular season on Sunday at Paycor Stadium. With the Browns locked into the fifth seed in the AFC and the Bengals eliminated from the playoffs, the Week 18 odds will likely showcase a boring affair in this one.
With nothing to gain from a victory, the Browns are expected to rest multiple starters, which has led to the NFL odds for this contest growing from Bengals -4 to -7. Here are my best free NFL picks for Browns vs. Bengals on January 7.
Browns vs Bengals odds
Browns vs Bengals predictions
Considering how many injuries the Cleveland Browns have dealt with, it makes sense to rest as many key starters as possible in this spot. This offense had been without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson and Pro Bowl running back Nick Chubb for a significant portion of the season, as well as both starting tackles.
Joe Flacco has since helped save their season after being signed off his couch last month, but the 38-year-old QB will be given the week off.
In his place, Cleveland has announced that Jeff Driskel will start under center. Driskel has been a backup and practice squad player for seven different teams over the last seven years, and he was only signed by Cleveland last Friday. It’s a bit strange to hand him the reins to the offense with just a week of practice under his belt, but that’s just how bad of a backup P.J. Walker has been.
Although head coach Kevin Stefanski hasn’t mentioned which other starters he’ll rest, don’t be surprised if a few key players don’t suit up. Starting receivers Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore, tight end David Njoku, and all three interior offensive linemen are dealing with nagging injuries and could use a break to be at full strength by the playoffs.
With Driskel at QB and a combination of those previously mentioned players sitting out, this Browns offense could look like a preseason unit. While the Cincinnati Bengals stop unit has struggled this season, Cleveland’s pop-gun offense won’t be able to test them downfield.
The Bengals are playing for nothing more than pride at this point, but they should have some motivation since they’re facing a rival in front of their home fans. I considered taking the Under on Cleveland’s team total here but with that number sitting at just 14.5, I’ll back the Browns’ first drive to end in a punt instead.
My best bet: Browns first drive result – Punt (-135 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Browns vs Bengals same-game parlay
Browns first drive result – PuntFirst score will be on or after 7 minsBrowns 1H team total Under 9.5Bengals moneyline 1H
+350 at bet365
If we’re betting on the Browns to punt on their first drive it also makes sense to bet on the first score coming after the 7-minute mark. After all, even if the Browns rest a few key players on defense they’ll likely still be solid on that side of the ball. The Bengals are averaging just 2.3 ppg in the first quarter in Jake Browning’s six starts at QB.
Let’s continue with our theme of fading this Browns offense early by taking the Under 9.5 on their first half team total. Driskel won’t have any chemistry with his receivers, which should be evident early, and Cleveland will likely run a vanilla offense with a new QB under center.
If the Browns score fewer than 10 points before halftime, there’s also good chance that the Bengals will go into the break with a lead. I’m reluctant to lay 7 points on the full-game spread, but Browning has played far better than expected since replacing Joe Burrow and he should be able to guide the Bengals to a first-half lead against a Browns team that doesn’t care about this game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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